Federation of Automobile Dealers Association Releases Oct’26 Vehicle Retail Data

2026-11-06 06:27:03 Automotive

6th November’26, Mumbai, BHARAT: The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) today released Vehicle Retail Data for Oct'26.

Oct’26 Auto Retail

Reflecting on October 2026 Auto Retail performance, FADA President Mr. Sai Giridhar said: “October is India’s largest retail month of the year, and this year it must be read with the calendar firmly in mind. Total vehicle retails stood at 31,72,466 units — 25.05% higher than September, but 23.80% lower than October 2025. That year-on-year decline is almost entirely optical. Last October was an exceptional month that carried both Navratri and Deepawali together, over and above the pent-up demand released after the GST 2.0 rate cuts of 22nd September 2025; this year Navratri fell in October while Dhanteras and Diwali move into November. Measured against that extraordinary base, Two-Wheelers declined 28.35% and Passenger Vehicles 14.23%, even as Commercial Vehicles grew 2.29%, Three-Wheelers 3.97%, Tractors 3.10% and Construction Equipment 22.07%. Seen correctly, this was still the second-highest October on record — with Commercial Vehicles, Three-Wheelers and Tractors each posting their best-ever October — and the 25% sequential jump over September is the truer measure of festive demand.

What the year-on-year numbers conceal is where the decline sits. The sharpest falls are precisely in the most Deepawali-dependent pockets — rural Two-Wheelers, down 33.97% against urban’s 20.77%, and the Northern markets — the very segments and regions our dealers there now expect to lead November. To our mind this is the signature of demand deferred by the festival calendar, not demand destroyed: the rural, two-wheeler-led buying that powered last October is set to land in this year’s November print.

Two-Wheelers retailed 23,21,419 units. Their year-on-year optics are the weakest of any category, because the two-wheeler is the most festival- and rural-sensitive segment and last October captured the full Deepawali wave that this year falls in November. Yet month-on-month they rose 29.67%, and independent festive-window tracking shows two-wheeler registrations growing on a like-for-like basis — the truer measure of the season. Dealers report healthy festive footfalls, tempered by localised rural stress in areas hit by deficient rains and a weak kharif, and by the fading of last year’s GST price advantage after subsequent manufacturer price increases.

Commercial Vehicles stood out, retailing 1,15,140 units — up 2.29% year-on-year and 11.19% over September — a best-ever October despite the high base. Growth was led by heavier trucks, with HCVs up 28.95% and MCVs 21.16%, even as LCVs eased 9.57%. Dealers attribute this to sustained freight movement, infrastructure execution and the haulage of coal, iron ore and e-commerce cargo, making Commercial Vehicles the clearest read-through to the underlying economy, as it is the least festival-dependent of all segments.

Passenger Vehicles retailed 5,07,768 units — 14.23?low an exceptional October 2025 but 18.86?ove September, and the third-best October on record. Utility vehicles and a strong launch pipeline continued to anchor demand, while entry-level cars remained the softer spot. Our pressing concern is inventory: against record wholesale dispatches from manufacturers, Passenger Vehicle channel stock held at around 43–45 days — unchanged from September. With the Dhanteras-to-Diwali retail wave now under way, we expect inventory to fall back in 30 days range by end of CY.

The clearest bright spot was electrification. EV retails touched an all-time high of about 3.55 lakh units, up 44.88% year-on-year, lifting overall EV penetration to roughly 11.5% from about 6% a year ago — a best-ever October for electric Two-Wheelers, Three-Wheelers, Passenger Vehicles and Commercial Vehicles alike. Tellingly, demand ran ahead of supply this month: with petrol and diesel prices continuing to remain elevated, electric vehicle driving ranges now materially improved and EV prices increasingly at par with comparable petrol and diesel models, buyer pull strengthened to the point where availability — not demand — became the binding constraint. Three-Wheelers, now close to 63% electric, posted their best-ever October, and with buyers continuing to move towards CNG, hybrid and electric options, alternative fuels once again nudges past petrol in the Passenger Vehicle mix. This steady, broad-based shift to cleaner mobility — holding firm even in a base-distorted month — is among the most encouraging structural signals in Indian auto retail today.”

Near-Term Outlook (November’26)

Dealers enter November with measured optimism. In FADA’s Online Members’ Survey, 51.65% expect growth in November, 34.71% expect flat sales and 13.64% expect de-growth. The decisive support is the festival calendar itself: with Dhanteras on 6th November and Diwali on 8th November, the single biggest retail wave of the year falls squarely within the month, and the festive-season registration tracking so far is encouraging. Importantly, the rural and two-wheeler demand that the calendar pushed out of October is expected to land this month, and dealers in the Northern markets — among the weakest on October’s year-on-year optics — report the firmest November expectations. Working the other way, dealers flag soft underlying demand and a possible post-festive lull once the Diwali peak passes, continued supply and model-availability gaps, and the first repo-rate increase in over three years, with about 31% reporting a moderate or material effect on financing costs and EMIs. Overall, the near-term outlook for November’26 is Cautiously Optimistic — the festive engine is only now shifting into top gear as Dhanteras and Diwali bring the year’s biggest retail wave into the month.

Next 3 Months Outlook (November’26-January’27)

Over the November’26–January’27 window, 50.41% of dealers expect growth, 40.08% flat and 9.50?-growth. This reflects a clear-eyed view of the quarter: a strong Diwali in early November, followed December–January stretch that will lean on year-end offers, fresh launches and the pace at which manufacturers can supply the right variants. Commercial Vehicle dealers carry the firmest conviction, citing infrastructure, mining and e-commerce haulage, while Two-Wheeler dealers are the most cautious as they watch rural cash flows, the progress of paddy procurement from November and the lingering effect of higher EMIs. Set against a longer lens, the fundamentals remain intact — on a two-year view Navratri’26 volumes were still well above 2024, this was the second-best October on record, financial-year-to-date retails are up 10.07%, and electrification continues to deepen — evidence that the demand step-up delivered by GST 2.0 has held even as a single distorted month clouds the year-on-year picture. The real verdict on demand will be written by November’s Diwali print, not by October’s base-distorted optics — a quiet, broad-based resilience that remains one of the more dependable mirrors of the wider India Growth Story. Overall, the outlook for the November’26–January’27 quarter is Cautiously Optimistic, with a measured undertone.

Key Findings from our Online Members Survey

Liquidity

Good 47.52%
Neutral 43.80?d8.68%

Sentiment
Good 45.04%
Neutral 43.80?d11.16%

Expectation from November’26

Growth 51.65%
Flat 34.71?-growth 13.64%

Expectation in next 3 months (Nov’26-Jan’27)

Growth 50.41%
Flat 40.08?-growth 9.50?out FADA India

Founded in 1964, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), is the apex national body of Automobile Retail Industry in India engaged in the sale, service and spares of 2 & 3 Wheelers, Passenger Cars, UVs, Commercial Vehicles (including buses and trucks), Tractors and Wheeled Construction Equipment. FADA India represents over 15,000 Automobile Dealerships having over 30,000 dealership outlets including multiple Associations of Automobile Dealers at the Regional, State and City levels representing the entire Auto Retail Industry. Together we employ ~5 million people at dealerships and service centres.

FADA India, at the same time also actively networks with the Industries and the authorities, both at the Central & State levels to provide its inputs and suggestions on the Auto Policy, Taxation, Vehicle Registration Procedure, Road Safety and Clean Environment, etc. to sustain the growth of the Automobile Retail Trade in India.